Cyril and the Gang of Four

By Patrick Smith in Johannesburg Warning parliament that slow economic growth is killing jobs and building up unsustainable debt, President Cyril Ramaphosa finds his reform efforts are being blocked by four ANC stalwarts with their own agenda and political ambitions.

As the sun set against the majestic Table Mountain, South Africa’s political and business elite congregated in Cape Town for the opening of parliament on 13 February. The economy is stuttering, in the longest downturn since 1945. It was President Cyril Ramaphosa’s chance to reset the compass for a government that has increasingly looked like it was losing its way. His speech at parliament’s opening was more confessional than a call to action: “We cannot continue along this path. Nor can we afford to stand still.” Ramaphosa has been struggling to boost investor confidence as the electricity utility Eskom starts a new season of power cuts, the government bails out more ailing state firms and politicians in the governing African National Congress (ANC) fight over jobs. Youth disaffection is mounting, driven by joblessness and inequality. Only 20% of new voters bothered to register on the electoral roll before last year’s elections, reported Afrobarometer. Disenchanted by the state of the country, most had little faith that politicians would be able to fix it. Moeletsi Mbeki, deputy chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs, says the country should learn from the Arab Spring revolt that swept North Africa in 2011: “Those kind of red flags are starting to appear. I don’t think we are faced with a crisis yet on the scale of Tunisia […] but we have the dynamics, the potential to move that way.” Two years ago, Ramaphosa had taken the reins after senior ANC officials pushed Jacob Zuma from power. They called for a new national coalition – beyond partisan interests – to fix the economy after more than a decade of corrosive patronage politics and to take the country forward. Counter-reformation An initial wave of support for Ramaphosa has ebbed as the economy has slowed. Attempts to hold corrupt officials to account are also being derailed. Some of that can be put down to the ‘Fightback group’, a loose alliance of ANC politicians who back Zuma and oppose Ramaphosa’s plans for house cleaning. For now, this group has four of the top six positions in the ANC hierarchy. They control almost half of its national executive committee, a majority of its members of parliament and most of its important committees. They can block new laws and reforms. They have the ability to countermand Ramaphosa’s appointment to the boards of the all-important state-owned enterprises – once the driving force of South Africa’s economy and now the cause of its debilitating indebtedness. “It’s time for Ramaphosa to pick up the pace and take bold actions,” says Oyama Mabandla, executive chairman of African Phoenix Investments. “Timidity on reforms will embolden the Fightback.” Mabandla concedes that Ramaphosa has inherited a nightmare economy but he wants a more muscular approach: “He should use the bully pulpit, lay down a common set of goals […], argue that most people got no benefit from populism.” Across the parliamentary benches, Ramaphosa is hemmed in by his own party, according to William Gumede, a professor at Wits University. “In government, the ANC has seen new power groups grow up based on provinces, cities and local interest groups rather than the old organisational factions,” says Gumede. That complicates any attempt to push through reforms. “The ANC is now divided into two almost separate and contesting parties – the ANC of Ramaphosa and that of former president Zuma,” says Gumede. He continues: “Deputy president David Mabuza has been positioning himself as a third interest group – it might sway a decision if there is a stalemate.” It was Mabuza’s backing that ensured Ramaphosa won the leadership elections in 2017, by a slim margin. Somehow the two men have to work together. Seen as the leader of the ‘Gang of Four’ challenging Ramaphosa (see profiles above), Mabuza has a chequered past as premier of Mpumalanga Province. He has made common cause with Ace Magashule, former premier of the Free State and now ANC secretary general. That gives Magashule powers over the branches and elections in the provinces – control of the party machinery. Premier league Working alongside Magashule at the ANC’s Luthuli House headquarters in Johannesburg is Paul Mashatile, the party’s treasurer general and a former premier of Gauteng, the country’s biggest province. These three former provincial bosses typify the new politics in South Africa, particularly within the ANC. With strong networks in their provinces, they have jumped onto the national stage to expand their support. But it is difficult to pin them down on policies or ideas, beyond a populist opposition to cuts in the public sector. Human settlements minister Lindiwe Sisulu is the fourth and most improbable member of the Gang. Having made a failed bid for the ANC presidency in 2017, she was passed over by Ramaphosa for the deputy presidency. From the fabled Sisulu clan, Lindiwe is a lifelong ANC loyalist and has held several top ministerial jobs, but she lacked the block support of a province that Mabuza could bring to bear on the leadership election. The reality is, according to Gumede, that none of the Gang of Four could run a leadership challenge by themselves. “They will work together to push for specific policies – such as nationalisation of the Reserve Bank, or expropriation of land without compensation, or National Health Insurance – pushing Ramaphosa into a corner.” Leadership struggle ahead? Another ANC-watcher compared the Gang of Four’s tactics to a real-estate magnate who wants to get tenants out of a building on a valuable piece of land: “He will smash all the windows, turn off the light and water, make life unbearable until all the occupants quit – it’s a waiting game and one that Ramaphosa’s opponents think they can win.” According to Mmusi Maimane, the former leader of the Democratic Alliance, there is a serious risk that Ramaphosa’s opponents could exploit the bad economic conditions to push him out. “I think the ANC is heading for another leadership struggle, and I would watch Lindiwe Sisulu as a candidate who could come through.” At the beginning of the year, Ramaphosa came under heavy attack from the Gang of Four, with Mabuza calling for the sacking of state enterprises minister Pravin Gordhan for failing to reform the sector. It was a sharp reminder that Mabuza felt little loyalty to Ramaphosa, whose leadership was the target of the demand. At a midnight mass in Cape Town, Archbishop Thabo Makgoba called for South Africa to make 2020 “the year of the orange jumpsuit” – meaning that the authorities should speed up the prosecution (and jailing) of those officials colluding with the ‘state capture’ project, which destroyed state companies at an estimated cost of more than R1trn ($66.7bn). “People are impatient, and that is understandable,” Bridgette Radebe, a mining magnate and Ramaphosa’s sister-in-law, tells The Africa Report, “but the conclusions must come from a judge working through the process.” Ramaphosa also has to bring the ANC back together, she adds, but dismissed challenges to him with a smile: “The President’s position is like an actor or a singer […] some people will like him and if they don’t like him, let’s hope it will make him try harder to win them over.” People should look more closely at parliament, adds Radebe, and its failure to hold government and business to account. “For example, the mining charter is very clear on parliament’s responsibilities on […] beneficiation and tax complicity and illicit flows […] but the MPs don’t act. They don’t question the mining companies about compliance.” For Martin Kingston, deputy chair of Business Unity South Africa, it is the pace of tough economic reforms that are critical: “We’re worried about the passage of time. We’re in a dynamic set of circumstances where we’re eroding goodwill as a country. Our brand is being damaged by what people see. Our ability to attract investment is being undermined.” Because of this, argues Kingston, the road to recovery will stretch out much longer “to get to the levels of 4-5% growth, which is what we need. […] That’s not going to happen in the next five years. There are too many constraints that have to be addressed.” Mabandla argues that Ramaphosa’s strategy of focusing on fixing institutions, rather than fighting fires within the ANC, may work, but only in the short-term. “Much will depend on some quick wins […] like successful prosecutions which will restore people’s confidence. Cyril was born under a lucky star, so he might just pull it off.” Tax attack In early February, chief prosecutor Shamila Batohi announced that criminal charges against Ivan Pillay’s group of top investigators at the South African Revenue Service (SARS) – an affair that became known as the ‘rogue unit’ – had been dropped. The team was known for its daring raids on smuggling and tax-evasion schemes run by politically connected businesspeople, including Zuma’s son Duduzane. One of Pillay’s colleagues tells The Africa Report it was a hard-fought victory, and that SARS was regaining its effectiveness. The prosecution authority, which has to outsource many of its most politically sensitive investigations, is in a far more parlous state. “The question is not whether Ramaphosa can fix this,” says the investigator, “ it’s whether we, in terms of civil society and mass action, can fix things as we did when we fought apartheid. [...] It’s that kind of struggle now.” Does he think they will win? He chuckles and quotes Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci: “The old is dying and the new cannot be born. So the bigger risk is not victory by the corrupt but a kind of social stagnation that they block the positive changes we try to make and life gets worse even if they can’t return to power.”