Friday, 24 April 2020

Why Lock downs May not Work for Africa





As cases of the COVID19 increased in Wuhan this January, China took the then drastic step of imposing a lockdown. In a country where over 23% of the population is over 55, the government introduced severe restrictions to mitigate the spread of the disease and avoid overwhelming the health system. As the disease spread to other parts of the world, the likes of Japan, Europe and the US – all of which have even older populations than China’s – employed the same strategy.

Many governments in Africa have also imposed lockdowns to deal with the pandemic. Yet these countries have radically different age demographics to those in Asia and Europe. Take two extremes. In Japan, 40% of people are over 55, and 28% are over 65. In Uganda, the equivalent figures are 5% and 2%. In Japan, 13% of the population is made of up children under 14. In Uganda, this figure is 48%.

These different age demographics are very important. Mortality rates for coronavirus start to increase for people aged 55 and higher. Meanwhile, young people are statistically highly unlikely to suffer severe symptoms. This means that in countries with a lower proportion of old people, the relative benefits of lockdown are more limited and are more likely to be outweighed by the downsides.In many countries in Africa, these downsides are particularly significant. Poor countries are much less able to cushion the potentially devastating economic impacts produced by lockdowns. This is if they are feasible in the first place. Effective lockdowns are near impossible in crowded low-income settlements that lack taps and sewers.

Part of the lockdown strategy is also to “protect the health system” by “flattening the curve” and reserving resources for coronavirus cases. This approach not only has more marginal benefits when populations are young and there is a less of a system to protect, but it also diverts attention from addressing health that are dangerous to much of the population, such as malaria, measles and complications in childbirth.

It might be argued that poorer countries with less effective health systems will have a higher burden of underlying health conditions, thus increasing vulnerability to COVID-19. However, the pre-existing health problems most closely related to getting severe symptoms from coronavirus tend to be associated with age. Current evidence from Spain, for example, suggests that people living with HIV are not at increased risk of acquiring COVID-19 or developing severe symptoms. In fact, the opposite may be the case.

This is not to say that there are not susceptible groups in Africa. Though they make up less of overall populations, there are still many older people in African countries. Meanwhile, there may be significant numbers of people who are more vulnerable to COVID-19 due to more widespread diseases of poverty such as TB, though this is not certain.

Nonetheless, the best policies for countries with young populations may not be lockdowns. There may be better ways to save lives such as physically shielding and supporting the most vulnerable while allowing the wider population to gain immunity, whether through a vaccine when it arrives or by virtue of enough people catching and recovering from the virus itself.

Shielding the vulnerable could involve a mix of physical isolation, restrictions on their movement, and focused care, eventually by those who have recovered from the virus. These measures will work best when based on local innovations appropriate to particular social contexts and designed with input from those involved. These could build on practices of respect for the elderly and community organising in many African settings.

Countries – and even regions within them – vary enormously in terms of age profiles, health systems, living conditions, economic resilience, and much more. In some places, including in Africa, lockdowns may be the best policy on balance. In other areas, including even in the likes of Europe and America, there may be more appropriate alternatives to lockdown. It is unlikely, however, that a one-size-fits-all approach serves everyone’s interests equally.

Today, some version of the lockdown has become most countries’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In years to come, we may look back on this moment as one in which an ideological practice emanating from older and wealthier countries was misguidedly “copy and pasted” by elites in younger and poorer societies, leading to marginal benefits in tackling the coronavirus but with the effect of increasing poverty and mortality among the poor.


Source: Africanarguments.org

Trial for potential Covid-19 drug shows no effect on Patients


Remdesivir, a drug thought to be one of the best prospects for treating Covid-19, failed to have any effect in the first full trial, it has been revealed.

The drug is in short supply globally because of the excitement it has generated. It is one of the drugs Donald Trump claimed was “promising”.

In a “gold standard” trial of 237 patients, some of whom received remdesivir while others did not, the drug did not work. The trial was also stopped early because of side-effects.

source: Theguardian.com

Ramadan Kicks off Amid COVID 19 Fears



Saudi Arabia has announced that the holy fasting month of Ramadan will start Friday, as Muslims worldwide face unprecedented restrictions to counter COVID 19

“Based on the sighting of the new month’s moon … it has been decided that Friday is the start of the month of Ramadan,” the royal court said Thursday in a statement cited by the SPA news agency.

King Salman said he is saddened that Muslims cannot pray at mosques because of corona virus restrictions.

GTB Announces Financial Results



Guaranty Trust Bank (GTBank) Plc wednesday made public its unaudited financial results for the first quarter (Q1) ended March 31, 2020, showing a revenue of N112.865 billion, which was an increase of 2.3 per cent above the N110.328 billion recorded in the corresponding Q1 of 2019.

Net interest income rose from N57.566 billion to N63.058 billion in 2020, while net fee and commission income fell from N18.010 billion to N13.554 billion.

Thursday, 23 April 2020

Abba Kyari: Cabal or Patriot?


Yemi Olakitan

 A look through the social media on the event of Abba Kyari’s death will reveal divergent views among Nigerians. While some praised him, others mourned him. There are some who actually celebrated his death. A twitter user compared him to Adolf Hitler. A commissioner received the sacked letter for openly celebrating Abba Kyari’s death.

Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje of Kano State brazenly sacked his Commissioner of Works and Infrastructure, Engineer Mu’azu Magaji for celebrating the death of late Abba Kyari, Chief of Staff to President Muhammadu Buhari. The Kano state Commissioner was said to have taken to his Facebook and twitter accounts to celebrate the death of late Abba Kyari.

 Governor Ganduje in a swift reaction through a statement by his Commissioner of Information, Muhammad Garba relieved Kano state Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure, Muazu Magaji of his appointment with immediate effect.

 The Governor said, “Late Abba Kyari had led a life worthy of emulation by serving his country to the best of his ability,”

 Mr. Magaji had while reacting to Kyari’s death in a Facebook post said Nigeria was now free. He said, Abba Kyari had so much power that he decided the fate of Nigerians.  Magaji said, “Win-win. Nigeria is free. You can’t change history. You are who you are, and what you do define who you are dead or alive!

“There is a world of difference between a good person and a good leader. Leadership is an aggregated quality of mass empathy and personal favours. Nigeria is bigger than any individual. While praying for the President’s late support staff. Ours is to prevent a repeat of a non-accountable domineering era.  Abba Kyari is no ordinary citizen. He amassed so much power that he decided the fate of my nation and its people. Hence the death is never a personal thing.” he added. The Commissioner paid dearly for his reckless statements when he received the sack notice. A testimony to the fact that Abba Kyari is still powerful even in death.

Abba Kyari was the trusted friend of President Mohammadu Buhari and his Chief of Staff.  He died from complications related to Covid-19 after a nearly month-long battle with the virus.  Kyari had widely been seen as one of the three most powerful people in Nigeria and said to have the complete trust of President Buhari. Some had even described him as the defacto Head of the Government. 

Although he held so much power and influence, he was not keen on political limelight. Reports reveal that an average Nigerian does not know his name although they are familiar with names like Bola Tinubu, Lai Moahmed, Moahmed Buhari, Nasir Elrufai and others.

There are few official public photographs of him and even his official age was not readily available in the early obituaries, though a tweet on from President Buhari confirmed he was 67.

Kyari contracted this virus while on an official assignment. Alongside Sale Mamman, minister of power, he had attended a meeting in Germany with officials of Siemens to discuss issues relating to the Nigerian power sector. After returning from the trip he had himself tested – though he showed no symptoms. This shows responsibility on the path of the chief of staff at a time when some members of the elite have willed to be irresponsible.

A memo Kyari wrote to the leadership of the National Assembly on how federal lawmakers returning from abroad were evading screening had gone viral earlier. It was reported that 35 senators had not complied with the procedure to determine their coronavirus status.

Kyari, who graduated from Cambridge and Warwick universities in the United Kingdom in the early 1980s, was often described as an intellectual by those who dealt with him.

In a chat with Felix Ademola, a young APC politician based in Igbesa, Ogun state, he said, ‘It is an irony to many that the man played against the expectation of Nigerians. The expectation is that the highly educated people must come from Southern Nigeria. Not many expected the weight of Abba Kyari’s academic credentials.

 ‘’The kind of education that the President himself cannot compete with, no wonder he drew him close, the education that Mohamadu Buhari does not have. Abba Kyari had them. He supported his friend with his intellectual prowess. He was the pillar behind Mohamadu Buhari, his personal adviser.  No wonder many hated him, purely out of political envy.’’

Reports say, Kyari’s passing is a major blow to the Buhari presidency. It leaves a gaping hole in the administration as it juggles responding to a coronavirus outbreak—which is likely to tip Nigeria’s economy into its worst recession in 30 years according to the IMF and insecurity caused by Boko Haram insurgency that has the military stretched. Kyari’s passing may force President Buhari into a quick shake-up of his cabinet.

Kyari was one of several high profile political figures in Nigeria to have contracted the virus. The state governors of Bauchi (Bala Mohammed) and Oyo (Seyi Makinde) both contracted the virus in March and have recovered. The Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai.

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Kyari was born on September 23RD 1952, to a Kanuri family from Borno. He was educated in St. Paul’s College in Wusasa. In 1976, he met General Muhammadu Buhari who was then Governor of Borno State.  He graduated with a Bachelor's degree in sociology from the University of Warwick in 1980, and also obtained a law degree from the University of Cambridge. Kyari was called to the Nigerian Bar in 1983 after attending the Nigerian Law School.

In 1984, he obtained a Master's degree in law from the University of Cambridge. He later attended the International Institute for Management Development in Lausanne, Switzerland, and in 1992 and 1994 participated in the Harvard Business School's Program for Leadership Development.   Kyari worked as a lawyer for some time after his return to Nigeria.

From 1988 to 1990, he was Editor with the New Africa Holdings Limited Kaduna. He also served as a Commissioner for Forestry and Animal Resources in Borno State in 1990s.  From 1990 to 1995, Kyari was the secretary to the board of African International Bank Limited, a subsidiary of Bank of Credit and Commerce International.   Kyari was an Executive Director in charge of management services at the United Bank for Africa, and was later appointed the chief executive officer. In 2002, he was appointed a board director of Unilever Nigeria, and later served on the board of Exxon Mobil Nigeria.

In August 2015, Kyari was appointed Chief of Staff to President Muhammadu Buhari.  Kyari was an influential figure within the Buhari administration. During the administration's first term, he worked mainly behind the scenes to implement the president's agenda. In 2019 with Buhari's re-election for a second term, he ordered his cabinet to channel all requests through Kyari's office.  Further enhancing his influence within government circles, and being labelled as the de facto head of government.  In 2017, following a leaked memo, Kyari became embroiled in a public argument with the Head of Civil Service, who was later removed from office and arrested. In 2020, in another leaked memo, Babagana Monguno the National Security Adviser accused Kyari of meddling in matters of national security.

Kyari was married to the sister-in-law of Ibrahim Tahir, and had four children.  On 24 March 2020, it was made public that Kyari tested positive for COVID-19 on March 23, following an official trip to Germany nine days before.

 There were reports that he had been flown out of the country for treatment and Reuters later reported he had "a history of medical complications, including diabetes".  On 29 March 2020, in an official statement, Kyari announced he was being moved from isolation in Abuja to Lagos for "preventive treatment” Kyari died on the evening of April 17TH 2020 at age 67.

President Mohamadu Buahri who spoke about him said, ‘’Mallam Abba Kyari, who died on 17th April, 2020, at the age of 67 from complications caused by the Coronavirus, was a true Nigerian patriot. My loyal friend and compatriot for the last 42 years – and my Chief-of-Staff – he never wavered in his commitment to the betterment of every one of us.

‘’He was only in his twenties when we first met. A diligent student, soon after he was blessed with the opportunity to study abroad – first at Warwick and then law at the University of Cambridge. But there was never any question Abba would bring his first-rate skills and newly acquired world-class knowledge back to Nigeria – which he did –

‘’immediately upon graduation.  Whilst possessing the sharpest legal and organizational mind, Abba’s true focus was always the development of infrastructure and the assurance of security for the people of this nation he served so faithfully. For he knew that without both in tandem there can never be the development of the respectful society and vibrant economy that all Nigerian citizens deserve.’’

 In political life, Abba never sought elective office for himself. Rather, he set himself against the view and conduct of two generations of Nigeria’s political establishment – who saw corruption as an entitlement and its practice a byproduct of possessing political office.  Becoming my Chief of Staff in 2015, he strove quietly and without any interest in publicity or personal gain to implement my agenda.’

 The Governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello in is own assessment of the man said that President Muhammadu Buhari’s late Chief of Staff, Abba Kyari was a ‘cabal’ in this present administration.’’ 

According to Bello, the late Kyari stepped on toes while discharging his duties in the interest of President Buhari and Nigeria. The Governor noted that Kyari sacrificed it all to ensure that Nigeria had the much modest achievement that it had today, adding that he took a lot of bullets and responsibility for that.  Asked if the late Kyari was a cabal in President Buhari’s presidency considering how influential he was in the cabinet, Bello said on Channels Television’s Sunday Politics: “Like you know and that of us in authority, loyalty is number one.   “Secondly, your ability and character to discharge the duties and responsibilities discharged on you is one other thing.  “Mallam Abba Kyari was very loyal to Mr. President, very diligent, a professional par excellence, and he is very passionate about the progress and development of Nigeria, not only to our party the APC but Nigeria in general.

“Such a person, if he’s carrying out his duties and responsibilities, surely there is no way you will not step on toes one way or the other to ensure that the job is done.  “So if he stepped on a toe in one way or the other, it is just to ensure that he serves Mr. President diligently, that he did so well.  “He took a lot of bullets and responsibility for that. So there is no regret and no apology to that effect.  “In due course, we are going to miss this great Nigerian who sacrificed it all to ensure that we have the much modest achievement that we have today, so if you say cabal, in one way or the other yes.  “You will have one or two persons that are loyal to you who’re ready to dare the devil and ensure that the job is done. So if you call it a cabal, it depends on the angle you are looking at it from.”

Additional Sources: Channels Television, Wikipedia

Covid Organics To Be distributed Free- Madagascar President




Madagascan President Andry Rajoelina has officially launched a medicine he believes can prevent and cure patients suffering from COVID-19.

Developed by the Malagasy Institute of Applied Research and branded COVID Organics, President Rajaolina presented the so-called remedy to the press on Monday. It contains Artemisia, a plant cultivated on the Big Island to fight against malaria.

“All trials and tests have been conducted and its effectiveness in reducing the elimination of symptoms has been proven for the treatment of patients with COVID-19 in Madagascar,” the president said.

A presidential decree said COVID-organics is mandatory for children returning to school on Wednesday. President Rajaolina said Monday that it had cured two COVID-19 cases.

“The Covid-Organics will be distributed free of charge to our most vulnerable compatriots and sold at very low prices to others. All profits will be donated to IMRA to finance scientific research,” the president wrote on Twitter..

“I’m convinced that, in fact history will prove us, but today there are already two cases that have been cured with the Covid-organics, but we’ll actually see what happens next.”

“Covid Organics will be used in profilaxis, i.e. preventive, but clinical observations have shown a trend towards its effectiveness in curative, other clinical studies are currently underway,” he stressed at the launch.

The president has previously made claims about herbal remedies despite scientific opinion that there is currently no cure for COVID-19 and that any experimental formula should be rigorously tested to see if it is safe and effective.

As of April 22, Madagascar’s case stats stood at 121 cases of which 44 had recovered with no deaths.

Wednesday, 22 April 2020

Madagascar President Launches COVID 19 Cure and Prevention




President of Madagascar Andry Rajoelina has officially launched a local herbal remedy claimed to prevent and cure the novel coronavirus.

“Tests have been carried out — two people have now been cured by this treatment,” Rajoelina told ministers, diplomats and journalists at the Malagasy Institute of Applied Research (IMRA), which developed the beverage.

“This herbal tea gives results in seven days,” he said.Downing a dose, he said: “I will be the first to drink this today, in front of you, to show you that this product cures and does not kill.”

The drink, which has been called COVID-Organics, is derived from artemisia — a plant with proven efficacy in malaria treatment — and other indigenous herbs, according to the IMRA.

But its safety and effectiveness have not been assessed internationally, nor has any data from trials been published in peer-reviewed studies. Mainstream scientists have warned of the potential risk from untested herbal brews.

Rajoelina brushed aside any such reservations and said the concoction would be offered to schoolchildren, as it was his duty was to “protect the Malagasy people”.

“COVID-Organics will be used as prophylaxis, that is for prevention, but clinical observations have shown a trend towards its effectiveness in curative treatment,” said Dr Charles Andrianjara, IMRA’s director-general.

The large Indian Ocean island has so far detected 121 cases and no fatality.

The pandemic has triggered a rush for herbal formulas, lemons and ginger in the belief that they can protect against the virus.

The World Health Organization (WHO), which has people to be vigilant about claimed cures for COVID-19, did not attend the event.

The US Centers for Disease Control (CDC), referring to claims for herbal or tea remedies, says: “There is no scientific evidence that any of these alternative remedies can prevent or cure the illness caused by COVID-19. In fact, some of them may not be safe to consume.”

The Source: The Guardian Newspaper, Nigeria

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